If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
Success Rate (college football):
50% of needed yards on first down. For example, you must get to 2nd and 5.
70% of needed yards on second down. For example on 2nd and 5, you must get to 3rd and 1.
And 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. Simply put, CONVERT NOW!
With this, every play is deemed either successful or not, and over the course of a game or season, you can use this as an efficiency measure, as you would on-base percentage in baseball. It helps to describe a team’s ability to stay on schedule and avoid drive-crippling passing downs. (How crippling are passing downs? The national success rate on standard downs was 48 percent. On passing downs: 32 percent.) Efficiency might matter more to teams without a ton of explosiveness, but on some level it matters to everybody.
Take things one play at a time and get it done.
Read more at https://www.footballstudyhall.com/platform/amp/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors