July 19, 2018
Success Rates are 50% of needed yards on first down, 70% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.
A five percent difference in success rate raises your chances of winning a game to about 75 percent. That’s one of 20 plays.
If you are successful in nine of every 20 plays, and your opponent is successful in eight, you are going to win at least two-thirds to three-quarters of the time.